TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 5:56 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Nikoloz Basilashvili will win by more than 4.5 games against Naoya Honda in their Guangzhou tennis match. Currently, Polymarket assigns a 50.0% probability to Nikoloz Basilashvili achieving this game spread. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 6:30AM ET, as the outcome will depend on the performance of both players during that fixture.
This market refers to the tennis match between Naoya Honda and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Guangzhou, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naoya Honda' if Naoya Honda advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Naoya Honda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective predictions of informed traders. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate, especially when a significant amount of volume is traded. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information available to each group, or simply because of varying risk appetites. Comparing this market’s odds to those from sportsbooks can reveal where the crowd believes there is value, or where the sportsbook may be mispricing the probability of an outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding the Honda vs Basilashvili match.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Honda vs Basilashvili match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Sep 22, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could shift market sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches involving these players could also impact confidence levels. Additionally, large trading volume from informed traders could signal new information or a change in outlook. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for anyone looking to capitalize on potential price movements in this market related to the Honda vs Basilashvili match.