TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 12:28 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the scheduled tennis match between Hayato Matsuoka and Lloyd Harris in Guangzhou will be completed. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.0% probability to “Guangzhou: Completed Match: Hayato Matsuoka vs Lloyd Harris” and an 8.5% probability to “Guangzhou: Hayato Matsuoka vs Lloyd Harris”. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the original match schedule for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET, as this market will resolve based on whether the match proceeds as planned.
This market refers to the tennis match between Hayato Matsuoka and Lloyd Harris in the Guangzhou, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against Lloyd Harris. This market will resolve to 'Lloyd Harris' if Lloyd Harris advances against Hayato Matsuoka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small number of professionals, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise when assessing the potential outcome of the Guangzhou tennis match and identifying where value might exist.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular player will win, the higher the share price for that outcome will climb. This creates a dynamic market where prices adjust based on supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of expectations for the Guangzhou tennis match.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Guangzhou tennis match between Hayato Matsuoka and Lloyd Harris, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even pre-match analysis from respected tennis commentators could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players could also have an impact. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself can cause noticeable price movements, especially with lower volume. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Sep 21, 2026.