TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 5:03 PM EST
Kalshi
Two Bolivian soccer teams, Guabira and Aurora, compete in a high-stakes match where the outcome determines which team secures a victory based on the final score after regulation time.
The event resolves based on the result of the Guabira vs Aurora professional Bolivia Premier Division soccer game scheduled for September 16, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance betting action and ensure profitability, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply variations in opinion. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into where the market might be mispricing the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly evolving based on supply and demand, offering a real-time view of collective predictions for the Guabira vs Aurora match.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official result of the Guabira vs Aurora match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 16, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or shifts in player form could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators could also cause fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants might signal new information entering the market, leading to price adjustments. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving dynamics of this market and potentially identify advantageous trading opportunities.