TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 10:33 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks how many group-stage winners will be eliminated during the Round of 32 knockout stage at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. On Kalshi, the probability that at least 4 group winners are knocked out stands at 100.0%, while the probability that at least 3 group winners are knocked out is also 100.0%. Resolution is determined by official FIFA records of the tournament outcome. Watch the Round of 32 matches concluding around July 4, 2026, which will determine the final count of eliminated group winners.
The market resolves based on the total number of group winners from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup group stage that are knocked out during Round of 32 matches. A group winner is defined as a team that finished in first place within their group during the group stage. Each outcome corresponds to a specific threshold of group winners eliminated. The market resolves Yes for each outcome if at least the specified minimum number of group winners are knocked out, with outcomes ranging from 1+ through 12 group winners. The '12 group winners' outcome resolves Yes only if exactly 12 group winners are eliminated, representing the theoretical maximum since there are 12 groups in the 2026 tournament format.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect real-time crowd sentiment rather than fixed bookmaker lines. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds more slowly and incorporate margin, while prediction markets update continuously as traders buy and sell shares. For Group Winners Knocked Out in Round of 32, comparing Kalshi implied probability to major sportsbook lines can reveal whether the crowd is more or less bullish than professional oddsmakers. These differences often signal where smart money is positioning ahead of the tournament stage.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, Group Winners Knocked Out in Round of 32 is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of whether group winners will be eliminated in the Round of 32. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents per share, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction that the event occurs. Kalshi's transparent, real-time pricing mechanism allows you to enter or exit positions at any time before resolution, with spreads tightening as liquidity and trading volume increase.
The Group Winners Knocked Out in Round of 32 market resolves on Jul 4, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual tournament results during the Round of 32 stage. The market will settle based on whether group winners are knocked out at that specific stage of the competition. Traders should monitor official tournament announcements and match outcomes as the event approaches to assess the probability of this outcome occurring as scheduled.
Several factors could shift odds for Group Winners Knocked Out in Round of 32 before resolution. Group-stage match results and final standings will directly influence which teams advance and remain vulnerable in the Round of 32. Injury announcements to key players, tactical shifts by top teams, and head-to-head matchup draws will reshape expectations about which group winners face elimination. Media coverage, expert analysis, and betting patterns on related markets can also trigger repricing. As the tournament progresses and Round of 32 matchups become clearer, market conviction will sharpen around the likelihood of group winners being knocked out.