TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 8:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Gremio and Bolivar in an upcoming soccer match, focusing on the margin of victory during regulation time. The outcome depends on whether either team secures a win by a specified goal difference, reflecting the competitive balance and potential scoring dynamics of the game.
The event evaluates various goal-difference thresholds for wins by Gremio or Bolivar in the specified soccer match, all determined solely within regulation time—90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Gremio wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding markets resolve affirmatively. Similarly, if Bolivar wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, their respective markets resolve affirmatively. No outcome is considered if the match ends in a draw, if a win meets exactly the named threshold (e.g., a 2.5-goal win for Gremio does not satisfy the '>2.5' requirement), or if the game is decided in extra time or penalties. All markets are independent and resolved based strictly on the final regulation-time score.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different risk assessment than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may incorporate sharp lines and adjustments, traders on Kalshi set prices based on their own analysis and liquidity conditions, which can lead to tighter spreads or sharper movements ahead of key match events.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the odds through their buy and sell orders, which determine the current implied probability for each possible spread outcome. The market price reflects the aggregate assessment of participants about the likely point difference when Gremio faces Bolivar in regulation time. As new information emerges — such as team news, form, or weather — the pricing adjusts dynamically based on order flow and volume, which currently sits at $29,594 for the entire market.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the match result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The spread value will be settled based on the official score after regulation time, and the market will close accordingly.
Injuries, weather conditions, or tactical changes announced by either team could shift this market significantly. Key moments such as early goals or red cards often cause rapid price adjustments, while broader betting trends and analyst updates in the days leading up to the match can also influence trader sentiment on Kalshi.