TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 7:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will dominate the first half of an upcoming soccer match by winning by a margin of more than 1.5 goals. It specifically tracks performance during the initial 45 minutes of play, ignoring the final outcome of the full game. The event is tied to a professional South American tournament match scheduled for July 30, 2026.
The event determines whether either Gremio or Bolivar achieves a first-half victory margin exceeding 1.5 goals in their CONMEBOL Sudamericana match scheduled for July 30, 2026. If Gremio wins the first half by 2 or more goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Bolivar secures a first-half lead of 2 or more goals, its corresponding market resolves to Yes. Only goals scored before halftime break are counted toward these outcomes. Should the match be canceled or postponed beyond two weeks from its original date, all affected markets resolve at a fair price based on prevailing conditions at that time.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectations of all participants. The market price adjusts dynamically based on buying and selling pressure, allowing for rapid shifts in sentiment as analysis, injuries, or weather conditions come into focus ahead of the match.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the actual scoreline at the end of the first half of play, which is then compared against the market’s spread conditions to settle all positions.
Key signals that could shift this market include injury updates to star players, weather forecasts affecting match conditions, tactical announcements from coaches, and any shifting perceptions about team form or motivation. As these developments unfold, traders may adjust their positions, causing the odds to fluctuate in the days leading up to the match.