TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 8:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential margin of victory in an upcoming Brazilian Serie B soccer match between Gremio Novorizontino and Sao Bernardo. Each market evaluates different thresholds for how many goals the winning team must score beyond their opponent to settle as 'Yes'. The outcomes reflect various levels of dominance by either team in the contest.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential if either team wins the specified professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer match originally scheduled for September 25, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when Gremio Novorizontino wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or when Sao Bernardo wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. All markets explicitly exclude affiliation or endorsement by Kalshi with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds due to varying information and biases. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. Discrepancies can arise from differing opinions on team form, injuries, or even less quantifiable factors. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring; a higher price indicates a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust these prices based on their own analysis and expectations, creating a dynamic and evolving market. The spread represents the difference in implied probability between the two possible outcomes, and fluctuations in this spread indicate changing market sentiment regarding the match.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score difference between Gremio Novorizontino and Sao Bernardo in the Brazilian Serie B match. The market will determine whether Sao Bernardo wins by more than 1.5 goals, as defined by the contract specifications. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Gremio Novorizontino or Sao Bernardo would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, such as unexpected wins or losses in preceding matches, could also shift expectations. Even weather conditions on match day or tactical announcements from the managers could impact trading activity. Furthermore, any large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and trigger further price adjustments.