TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 9:40 PM EST
Kalshi
A professional USL Cup soccer match between Greenville Triumph SC and Richmond scheduled for July 11, 2026. The outcome is determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout.
Resolution is based on the final score of the Greenville Triumph SC vs Richmond professional USL Cup soccer match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. The match outcome is evaluated in three possible states: a win for Greenville Triumph SC, a win for Richmond, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie, the designated Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away from the original July 11, 2026 date, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with established rules.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader belief and real-money risk. Prediction markets can sometimes offer sharper, more efficient pricing because traders have direct financial exposure to accuracy. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing the two can reveal where the broader market sees value that bookmakers have yet to price in.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief of all active traders at that moment, with the implied probability derived directly from the current market price. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, causing prices to move in real time. This transparent, decentralized pricing model ensures that the odds you see represent genuine market consensus rather than a fixed sportsbook line.
This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the match is complete and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official final score and result as reported by the relevant sports authority. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new developments unfold. Resolution is automatic once the event concludes and the data is confirmed, at which point all positions settle according to the actual outcome.
Several factors could shift trader sentiment before the match concludes. Team news such as injuries, roster changes, or lineup announcements often trigger sharp price moves. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage can influence positioning as traders reassess probabilities. Weather conditions on match day may affect play style and outcomes. Betting action from sharp bettors or institutional traders can signal where informed money is flowing. Live match developments—early goals, red cards, or momentum swings—will drive continuous repricing as the event unfolds and new information becomes available.