TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players achieve a certain minimum distance on their longest completed pass during a football game between two teams. Each player's performance is evaluated independently against their individual yardage thresholds.
The event determines if any of the listed players records a longest reception exceeding their specified yardage threshold in the Green Bay vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 20, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a reception longer than the stated threshold, that specific market resolves to Yes. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles to the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolution depends solely on whether their longest reception met or exceeded the threshold. All markets operate independently, and each player’s performance is evaluated separately regardless of others' outcomes. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and beliefs. This often leads to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value if they diverge significantly from the prices seen in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each player having the longest reception. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a player is likely to have the longest reception, they will buy contracts, driving up the price. Conversely, if traders believe a player is unlikely to achieve this, they will sell, lowering the price.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official game statistics, specifically identifying the player with the longest single reception during the Green Bay versus New York game. The official NFL game logs will serve as the basis for determining the longest reception and, therefore, the winning contract in this market. Any ties will be handled according to the platform’s rules.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move prices in this market. News regarding player injuries to key receivers, changes in weather conditions that might favor a particular passing game, or even pre-game reports about offensive strategies could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, or even a shift in public perception based on expert analysis, could lead to significant price fluctuations in this market as traders adjust their positions based on new information.