TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 3:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Green Bay and New York. The outcome depends on whether each quarterback exceeds defined thresholds of pass attempts during the contest. These thresholds vary for each player, allowing participants to assess different levels of offensive activity.
All markets resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by the named quarterback—Geno Smith or Jordan Love—in the Green Bay vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. For each market, a specific threshold (e.g., 26+, 31+, etc.) determines a 'Yes' outcome if met. If the referenced quarterback is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all thresholds for both quarterbacks, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance metrics regardless of the threshold level.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the continuous flow of information and diverse perspectives incorporated by traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market evolves as participants react to news, injuries, and other relevant factors. Over time, prediction market prices tend to be more accurate forecasts than traditional odds, as they aggregate a broader range of informed opinions. However, discrepancies can exist, particularly before significant events or breaking news impacts expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing attempt totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the event’s outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the potential passing attempts in the game.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing attempt totals from the Green Bay Packers versus New York Jets game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing attempts recorded by official game statistics will determine the winning contract. Traders who hold contracts corresponding to the actual passing attempt total will receive a payout, while those with losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding the quarterbacks' health, such as injuries or illness, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions favoring a passing or running game, could also impact expectations. Unexpected announcements about offensive play-calling strategies or key player availability would also be catalysts. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding team dynamics or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment and affect the market price.