TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 5:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which player will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game between two teams. Participants can speculate on individual players' chances to be the first to cross the goal line, reflecting both team strategies and player roles.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player scores the first touchdown of the game. If the player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the entire game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets for the event.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds on Kalshi may shift in response, potentially offering different value compared to what’s available at sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player to score the first touchdown, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that player scoring first. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven entirely by supply and demand within Kalshi, and the market aggregates the collective intelligence of its participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the first player to score a touchdown in the Green Bay versus Minnesota game will determine the winning contract. The official game statistics will be used to verify the outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game records and announced shortly after the game concludes. Traders should monitor official sources for confirmation of the final result and subsequent settlement of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict inclement conditions, could also influence the market, as they might affect passing or running strategies. Unexpected announcements about starting quarterbacks or significant coaching decisions could also drive price movements. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could sway trader sentiment and impact the prices within this market.