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Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova
polymarket
kalshi

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova

Volume:
$1,139,972

Elise Mertens

 - Kalshi

Elise Mertens - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 2:01 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Elise Mertens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$595,145
N/A
N/A
$237,179
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$228,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Liudmila Samsonova

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$315,282
N/A
N/A
$166,272
Settled
No
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a professional tennis match between Elise Mertens and Liudmila Samsonova at the Grass Court Championships in Berlin. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus probability that the match will be completed is 100.0%, according to data from WTA Tennis. The match is scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, with resolution occurring by June 22, 2026 once the final result is officially recorded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi define match resolution scope differently. Polymarket's match winner resolves 50-50 on walkovers (pre-match withdrawal); Kalshi requires only that a ball be played for either player to win. This creates a gap in walkover and pre-match withdrawal scenarios.Hero tip: For Polymarket match winner and derivative markets, rely on the explicit 50-50 rule for walkovers and cancellations. For Kalshi, clarify whether a pre-match withdrawal (no ball played) resolves Yes or No. If the match begins and one player retires mid-match, both platforms should resolve to the advancing player, but confirm with Kalshi that this qualifies as 'after a ball has been played.'

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Match winner resolves to the advancing player if retirement/default occurs mid-match, but resolves 50-50 on walkover (pre-match withdrawal). Derivative markets (sets, games, totals) all resolve 50-50 if the match is not completed for any reason, canceled, or delayed beyond 7 days. Primary source: official WTA Tour information and credible reporting consensus.
  • Kalshi: Binary Yes resolution if either player wins 'after a ball has been played.' No explicit guidance on walkovers, pre-match withdrawals, cancellations, or delays. Ambiguous whether a ball must be played for Yes to resolve, or if any match outcome after a ball is played triggers Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Elise Mertens and Liudmila Samsonova in the Grass Court Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Liudmila Samsonova. This market will resolve to 'Liudmila Samsonova' if Liudmila Samsonova advances against Elise Mertens. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the match, confirming the match has officially started. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes, provided this occurs within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates prediction market pricing for the Mertens vs Samsonova grass court match across Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing you to monitor real-time consensus on the match outcome. Traders on both platforms continuously update odds based on player form, court conditions, head-to-head history, and injury reports. By tracking this market across multiple venues, you gain visibility into how different trader communities assess the probability of each player's victory. The cross-platform view reveals whether consensus is building or diverging, helping you spot arbitrage opportunities or validate your own assessment before the match begins.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are often more efficient than traditional sportsbooks because they aggregate dispersed information from many independent traders rather than relying on a single oddsmaker. Sportsbooks build in margins and manage liability; prediction markets typically reflect pure probability. For tennis, this market may price player matchups differently than your local sportsbook, especially if one platform has attracted more informed bettors or if recent news hasn't yet propagated across all venues. Comparing this market's odds to sportsbook lines can reveal mispricings and sharper consensus views on the outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity pools, which can create temporary price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket may attract traders focused on broader sports betting, while Kalshi's structure and audience might emphasize different information signals or risk tolerances. Differences in trading volume, fee structures, and market design also influence how quickly each platform incorporates new information about player injuries, recent match results, or court-specific factors. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs trade across both platforms, but monitoring both venues helps you identify which view is gaining consensus.

Key catalysts include injury announcements, recent tournament results, and head-to-head performance on grass courts. If either player withdraws or reports a significant injury, odds will shift sharply. Recent wins or losses on similar surfaces, changes in ranking, or coaching adjustments can also influence trader sentiment. Court conditions, weather forecasts, and seeding announcements closer to the event may trigger repricing. Media coverage highlighting one player's grass-court form or historical matchup trends will likely move prices as well. Monitor official tour announcements and player social media for real-time updates that could reshape this market's trajectory.