TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 32,318,066
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 32,318,066 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Closed: Jul 11, 2:42 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether the album good kid, m.A.A.d city achieves streaming performance above a specific threshold during the July 03-July 09 tracking week. Worldwide stream counts are measured by Luminate Data, with results typically published within 48 hours of the week's conclusion.
Kalshi
If good kid, m.A.A.d city has above 32,318,066 Worldwide Streams during the July 03 - July 09, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and live trader conviction rather than static projections. In this market, traders betting on the streaming outcome face direct financial consequences, which typically produces more responsive and dynamic pricing than published analyst estimates. Comparing this market's odds to music industry forecasts and media commentary can reveal where the crowd sees value or risk that mainstream analysis may have overlooked or underweighted.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the implied probability that the event will occur, with higher prices indicating stronger market confidence. As new information surfaces or trader sentiment shifts, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens, and prices adjust in real time to balance supply and demand among participants.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the streaming data becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on whether the album reaches the specified streaming threshold during the designated week. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout once the event is officially verified and the market settles, typically within a short window after the resolution date.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market before it closes. Official streaming platform announcements, chart debuts, or surprise release timing changes would likely trigger sharp price movements. Media coverage, artist social media activity, and real-time streaming data leaks from industry trackers can all influence trader positioning. Additionally, comparable album releases or broader music industry trends may provide context that reshapes expectations around this specific outcome.
