TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$93,512,876

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,170,643,411

338,472

Markets across

33,488

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,292

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the GitHub outage culprit market dashboard displays real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $6,128. It shows how traders on Polymarket are betting on which factor will trigger a critical incident on GitHub.com, offering a dynamic view of market expectations and liquidity for this specific event.

Analyst forecasts for this market often differ from the current odds on Polymarket. While experts may highlight varying risks and timelines, the market price reflects real-time trader sentiment and can diverge significantly from traditional forecasts. These differences emerge because market participants incorporate new data instantly, whereas analysts might issue updates less frequently. Monitoring both sources offers a fuller picture of expectations around the GitHub outage culprit market.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on official announcements or widely reported evidence identifying the cause of any critical incident on GitHub.com during the defined period.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 30, 2026. Technical reports, official GitHub status updates, or cybersecurity advisories might raise or lower probabilities. Large-scale service disruptions, even unrelated to GitHub, could also influence trader sentiment. Any credible indication of a potential incident — from infrastructure tests to third-party alerts — may cause rapid price changes as participants reassess the likelihood of a critical event.