TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Giro d'Italia Cycling Grand Tour Winner
kalshi

Giro d'Italia Cycling Grand Tour Winner

Volume:
$16,380

Jonas Vingegaard

 - Kalshi

Jonas Vingegaard - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Giro d'Italia?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jonas Vingegaard

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2¢
N/A
$8,621
0%
N/A
$4,570
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Felix Gall

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$3,027
0%
N/A
$1,804
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Giulio Pellizzari

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$1,369
0%
N/A
$966
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Adam Yates

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$843
0%
N/A
$470
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Egan Bernal

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$501
0%
N/A
$454
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Paul Magnier

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$452
0%
N/A
$450
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Thymen Arensman

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$416
0%
N/A
$411
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Jai Hindley

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$299
0%
N/A
$299
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Ben O Connor

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$250
0%
N/A
$250
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Guillermo Thomas Silva

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$188
0%
N/A
$188
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Afonso Eulalio

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$105
0%
N/A
$96
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Sepp Kuss

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$103
0%
N/A
$76
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Christian Scaroni

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$94
0%
N/A
$94
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Tobias Lund Andresen

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$94
0%
N/A
$94
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Giulio Ciccone

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$19
0%
N/A
$19
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Bart Lemmen

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Antonio Morgado

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Johannes Kulset

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Jan Christen

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Luca Vergallito

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Hartthijs de Vries

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Timo de Jong

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Jonas Geens

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Sakarias Koller Loland

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Markel Beloki

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
Total markets: 25 of 184

Intro

This market tracks whether Jonas Vingegaard will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia, one of professional cycling's three Grand Tours. On Kalshi, the probability of a Vingegaard victory stands at 98.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official results of the Giro d'Italia Cycling Grand Tour, scheduled to run from May 8 through May 31, 2026. Watch the mountain stages and time trials throughout the race window to assess whether Vingegaard maintains his dominance against the field.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect real-time trading by informed participants rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds less frequently and build in wider margins. Prediction markets like Kalshi aggregate dispersed knowledge through continuous price discovery, sometimes offering sharper or more responsive odds for the Giro d'Italia winner. Comparing Kalshi prices to major sportsbooks can reveal where the crowd sees value or where consensus differs, though both venues ultimately reflect uncertainty about which rider will triumph.

On Kalshi, the Giro d'Italia Cycling Grand Tour Winner market is priced through binary or outcome-specific contracts reflecting the probability each rider wins the race. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently reflects 100.0% implied probability, showing strong market conviction around the leading candidate. Prices move as traders buy and sell contracts, with each trade adjusting the odds to reflect new information, sentiment shifts, or race developments. Kalshi's order-book mechanism ensures transparent, real-time pricing that responds immediately to participant activity and external cycling news.

The Giro d'Italia Cycling Grand Tour Winner market resolves on May 31, 2026, coinciding with the conclusion of the 2026 Giro d'Italia cycling Grand Tour. Resolution is determined by the official race result—specifically, which rider crosses the finish line with the lowest cumulative time across all stages. The outcome is objective and verifiable through cycling's governing bodies and official race records. Once the winner is confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on their positions in the winning outcome.

Several catalysts could shift odds before May 31, 2026. Rider injuries, team roster changes, or withdrawal announcements will immediately reprrice favorites. Pre-race form, recent stage wins in other competitions, and training updates provide early signals of fitness and readiness. Weather forecasts and course conditions closer to May 2026 influence expectations for specific riders. Major cycling news—sponsorship changes, coaching updates, or tactical shifts—can alter perceived chances. As the race begins, daily stage results, time gaps, and rider performance will drive continuous repricing, with early leaders gaining odds improvements and struggling riders seeing their probabilities decline.