TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Alverca
Volume:
$79,006
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Liga Portugal professional soccer match between Gil Vicente FC (Vicente Barcelos) and FC Alverca scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the final outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, including win/loss/draw scenarios.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market has a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve to Yes. Polymarket has conflicting cancellation logic between its draw and win markets, creating asymmetric settlement risk.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market as currently documented—it cannot resolve consistently. On Polymarket, the draw market and win markets have opposite cancellation outcomes. If you are long the draw, a cancellation pays you; if you are long a win, it pays against you. Confirm match status with ligaportugal.pt within 2 hours of scheduled end time.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure is logically impossible. All three outcomes (Vicente win, Tie, Alverca win) are coded to resolve to Yes. This violates basic mutual exclusivity and makes the market unresolvable. Quote: 'If Vicente Barcelos wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Alverca wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with conflicting cancellation rules. Draw market resolves Yes on full cancellation; Win markets resolve No on full cancellation. Quote (Draw): 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.' Quote (Win): 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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