TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Gibraltar and Andorra, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It reflects how analysts and fans might assess potential performance gaps between the two sides in a competitive fixture. The event captures the sporting contest's dynamics based on the final score after regular time.
The event resolves based on the margin of victory in the Gibraltar vs Andorra UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 27, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds define resolution: Gibraltar winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or Andorra winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, all evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Any outcome meeting or exceeding these spreads resolves the corresponding market to 'Yes,' while all other results resolve to 'No.' The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, the prediction market may show a different probability. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded on Kalshi. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Gibraltar vs Andorra match, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. Conversely, if traders think an outcome is improbable, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective intelligence of participants, creating a real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread in the Gibraltar vs Andorra match, as determined by official match results. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their contracts settled in their favor. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the final score will impact the outcome of this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Sep 27, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Gibraltar or Andorra team would likely impact the odds. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in coaching staff could also cause shifts in the market. Monitoring sports news and analysis related to both teams is crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could affect the pricing of this market.