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Germany: Stage of Elimination
kalshi

Germany: Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$814,488

Round of 32

 - Kalshi

Round of 32 - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$130,429
N/A
N/A
$81,058
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$333,931
N/A
N/A
$312,909
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$271,212
N/A
N/A
$266,564
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,070
N/A
N/A
$19,562
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,399
N/A
N/A
$17,353
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,701
N/A
N/A
$7,485
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,746
N/A
N/A
$7,677
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Germany will be eliminated at the Round of 32 stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. On Kalshi, the probability of Germany's elimination at that stage stands at 29.0%, while elimination in the Round of 16 is priced at 27.0%. Resolution is determined by official FIFA tournament results. Watch Germany's group stage performance and head-to-head matchups in early 2026 to gauge their knockout round prospects.

Kalshi

Germany's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest round reached before losing or being removed from competition. If Germany fails to advance past the group stage, the Group Stage market resolves to Yes. If Germany advances but loses in the Round of 32, that market resolves to Yes. Progression continues through Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final stages. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. If Germany withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage previously reached; for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Germany wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader positioning rather than fixed bookmaker spreads. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds less frequently and build in a margin; prediction markets update continuously as new bets flow in. For Germany's World Cup elimination stage, the Kalshi market may price certain outcomes more aggressively than sportsbooks, especially as tournament dates near and team rosters solidify. Comparing Kalshi odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal where smart money is leaning and highlight value opportunities before bookmakers move their prices.

The Germany: Stage of Elimination market resolves on Jul 20, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official result of Germany's participation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament. The market will settle based on which stage Germany is eliminated, or whether they advance beyond the specified outcome. All trades lock in once the tournament outcome becomes official and Kalshi confirms the result. Traders should monitor FIFA's official tournament schedule and Germany's match results as the World Cup progresses to understand how their positions will be affected.

Germany's odds will shift based on squad announcements, injury updates to key players, and recent international match performance. Qualifying results and head-to-head records against potential group-stage opponents will influence perceived difficulty. Coaching changes, tactical adjustments, or public statements from the German Football Association can sway trader sentiment. As the tournament approaches, odds typically tighten and become more volatile. Once the World Cup begins, group-stage results will be the primary driver: strong performances boost elimination-stage odds, while early losses increase Round of 16 exit probability. Real-time market moves often precede mainstream media narratives, so watching Kalshi volume spikes can signal emerging conviction shifts.