TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 10:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Georgia State or UCF specifically in the second half of their upcoming college football matchup. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team in the second half alone.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the Georgia St. vs UCF college football game scheduled for Sep 19, 2026. For markets where UCF is the designated winner, resolution occurs if UCF outscores Georgia St. by more than the specified margin during the second half. Conversely, markets designating Georgia St. as the winner resolve if Georgia St. outscores UCF by more than the stated margin in that half. All markets exclusively consider points scored from the start of the second half through the end of regulation or overtime. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game commencement.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the game’s outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing these odds can provide a valuable perspective on public sentiment and potential value in either market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as they profit if their contracts are in the money at resolution. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, offering a real-time assessment of the likely second-half spread.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual second-half spread of the Georgia St vs UCF game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. The platform will verify the result, ensuring a transparent and accurate settlement process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Georgia St or UCF would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or late-breaking reports, could lead to adjustments in the market’s pricing as traders react to the latest information.