TOTAL VOLUME:
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 7:48 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Georgia State and UCF. Outcomes depend on which team leads by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter, reflecting early-game performance dynamics.
All markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either Georgia State or UCF at the end of the first quarter of the game scheduled for September 19, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team's lead exceeds the specified threshold for that market—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the actual result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current price represents the collective assessment of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the first quarter of the Georgia St vs UCF game. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the spread, based on the contract price at resolution. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome is being reported and verified.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Georgia St or UCF teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to affect the game's conditions, could also move the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders’ perceptions and shift the price. Public sentiment and betting trends in sportsbooks can also indirectly affect volume and price action in this market.