TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The outcome hinges on the margin of victory for either team within the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalties.
These markets resolve based on the difference in goals between the two teams at the end of the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time, but excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. Each market specifies a minimum goal-difference required for a 'Yes' outcome, depending on which team wins and by how many goals. If the winning team’s victory margin exceeds the specified threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The resolution is determined solely by the regulation time result, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a large number of traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from the initial sportsbook line. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more nuanced probabilities and adjust more quickly to new information than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Genoa vs Sudtirol match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely outcome, driven by the collective intelligence of the market participants. The current price indicates what the market believes is the fair probability of each spread.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final regulation time spread of the Genoa vs Sudtirol match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the league organizers. The market will determine which contract – representing a specific point spread – accurately reflects the final score difference. No further trading will be permitted once the outcome is officially known and reported, finalizing the settlement of all outstanding contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 15, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Genoa or Sudtirol could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or key player availability will likely cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any major shifts in public sentiment, as reflected by expert analysis or media coverage, could also move the market.