TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 5:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in a professional Serie A soccer match between Genoa and Napoli scheduled for August 22, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct primary rules define specific conditions under which the market resolves to 'Yes': Genoa winning by more than 2.5 goals, Genoa winning by more than 1.5 goals, Napoli winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Napoli winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each rule addresses a unique threshold of victory margin for either team, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of dominance in the match. All rules share the same secondary disclaimer stating that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction market odds often differ due to unique positioning and liquidity conditions. Traders may see varying implied probabilities compared to sportsbooks, influenced by real-time trading activity and volume of $45,157. While sportsbooks set fixed lines based on analysis and risk management, prediction markets adjust dynamically through buyer-seller interactions. This can lead to divergent views on expected outcomes, especially in markets with low volume like $43,218 over 24 hours. The differences highlight how decentralized pricing captures crowd wisdom uniquely.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official match result, specifically the final score difference, will determine which contracts settle. As long as the game is completed and reported through trusted sports news sources or league databases, the market will close and payouts will follow based on the pre-defined payoff structure.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or significant form shifts leading up to the match could move this market. Weather conditions affecting play style, disciplinary actions such as suspensions, and even early pre-game betting surges on Kalshi can shift trader sentiment. As the event approaches, any news impacting team performance expectations may cause rapid price adjustments, especially given the current volume of $45,157.