TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 10:19 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mika Petkovic and Federico Arnaboldi in the Genoa, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mika Petkovic' if Mika Petkovic advances against Federico Arnaboldi. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Mika Petkovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mika Petkovic and Federico Arnaboldi in the Genoa, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mika Petkovic' if Mika Petkovic advances against Federico Arnaboldi. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Mika Petkovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to represent the true probability of an outcome, though discrepancies can and do occur. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or shifts in public opinion than sportsbooks, potentially offering more favorable odds for informed traders. Analyzing both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest share price, is the predicted winner of the Genoa tennis match. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately forecast the event's result.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result of the Genoa tennis match between Mika Petkovic and Federico Arnaboldi, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding the players' form, potential injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather forecasts affecting the match schedule could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed individuals or groups could cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring tennis news sources and observing trading volume on Polymarket will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.