TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 2:05 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track individual golfer performance during Round 2 of the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, with each market resolving based on whether a specific player shoots below a predetermined stroke threshold. If a player withdraws before completing the round, their market resolves to the fair market price at the time of withdrawal.
Round 2 scoring markets for the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open resolve to Yes if the designated player records a score below their assigned stroke threshold during Round 2 competition. Stroke thresholds vary by player, ranging from 67.5 to 70.5 strokes, with most elite-ranked players assigned lower thresholds (67.5–68.5) and others assigned higher thresholds (69.5–70.5). If a player fails to complete Round 2 due to withdrawal or disqualification, the corresponding market resolves to the fair market price established at the time of that player's withdrawal, rather than resolving to No. All resolutions are based on official PGA scoring records for the tournament.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders risking real capital on their beliefs about outcomes. Prediction markets typically aggregate dispersed information more efficiently over time, sometimes offering sharper or earlier signals than traditional betting lines. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing the two can reveal valuable arbitrage opportunities and help you calibrate confidence in your own forecast.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for contracts tied to specific Round 2 outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective probability that traders assign to that outcome, ranging from near-zero to near-100. As new information emerges—player performance, weather, course conditions—traders adjust their positions, moving prices dynamically. You can enter limit or market orders to buy or sell contracts at your preferred price, and the spread between bid and ask reflects the market's confidence and liquidity at any given moment.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once Round 2 of the Genesis Scottish Open concludes and official scoring is finalized. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the verified results. Until that point, prices will fluctuate as players compete and new data becomes available. Early rounds often see significant repricing as leaderboard positions shift, so active traders monitor live scoring feeds and adjust positions accordingly. Final resolution depends on the completion and official publication of all Round 2 scores.
Several factors can shift prices in this market before resolution. Live scoring updates during Round 2 play will trigger immediate repricing as players move up or down the leaderboard. Weather conditions, course setup changes, and player withdrawals or injuries can all influence expectations. Momentum from Round 1 performance carries weight, but hot or cold streaks during Round 2 itself often surprise the market. Commentary from analysts and social media sentiment among golf fans can amplify moves. Major upsets or standout performances by contenders will generate the sharpest repricing, as traders reassess probabilities in real time.