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Genesis Scottish Open End of Round 1 Leader
kalshi

Who will lead after Round 1 of the Genesis Scottish Open?

Volume:
$6,215,265

Rasmus Hojgaard

 - Kalshi

Rasmus Hojgaard - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 3:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Rasmus Hojgaard

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$398,219
N/A
N/A
$216,381
Settled
No
kalshi

Rory McIlroy

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$355,488
N/A
N/A
$204,824
Settled
No
kalshi

Tom Kim

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$237,302
N/A
N/A
$160,883
Settled
No
kalshi

Bernd Wiesberger

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$171,238
N/A
N/A
$109,016
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Cantlay

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$83,655
N/A
N/A
$49,128
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Reed

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$405,465
N/A
N/A
$357,241
Settled
No
kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$400,238
N/A
N/A
$364,617
Settled
No
kalshi

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$307,858
N/A
N/A
$301,908
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Kirk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$249,634
N/A
N/A
$232,758
Settled
No
kalshi

Matt Fitzpatrick

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$209,292
N/A
N/A
$178,529
Settled
No
kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164,150
N/A
N/A
$156,739
Settled
No
kalshi

Wyndham Clark

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$147,888
N/A
N/A
$142,778
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Thomas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$145,226
N/A
N/A
$133,160
Settled
No
kalshi

Andrew Novak

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$140,807
N/A
N/A
$118,775
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$118,943
N/A
N/A
$118,445
Settled
No
kalshi

Eric Cole

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$101,413
N/A
N/A
$100,992
Settled
No
kalshi

Jon Rahm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$92,147
N/A
N/A
$89,012
Settled
No
kalshi

Oliver Lindell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$91,146
N/A
N/A
$90,940
Settled
No
kalshi

Doug Ghim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$77,350
N/A
N/A
$69,792
Settled
No
kalshi

Min Woo Lee

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70,295
N/A
N/A
$66,220
Settled
No
kalshi

Aaron Rai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70,047
N/A
N/A
$70,015
Settled
No
kalshi

Sahith Theegala

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$68,381
N/A
N/A
$57,063
Settled
No
kalshi

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$68,196
N/A
N/A
$68,073
Settled
No
kalshi

Brian Harman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$64,878
N/A
N/A
$57,170
Settled
No
kalshi

Nicolai Hojgaard

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$62,734
N/A
N/A
$61,984
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 160

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will hold the lead after the first round concludes at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open. On Kalshi, Rory McIlroy is the leading outcome at 21.0%, while Bernd Wiesberger follows at 21.0%. The resolution source is the official leaderboard at the end of Round 1, with tied leaders resulting in proportional payouts. Watch for the completion of Round 1 play on July 26, 2026, when the first-round leaderboard is finalized.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which participant achieves the lowest score at the end of Round 1 of the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open. If multiple participants are tied for the lead, the "Yes" payout for each tied participant is calculated as $1 divided by the number of tied participants (rounded down to the nearest cent), with "No" positions receiving the complementary payout of 1 minus the "Yes" amount.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Genesis Scottish Open Round 1 leader market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movement for predicting who will hold the lead after the first round concludes. The interface displays current implied probability, 24-hour trading volume via $5,336,171, and cumulative volume of $6,215,265. Traders use this data to monitor shifting sentiment as tournament play unfolds and new information emerges about player performance. The dashboard updates continuously during the trading window, allowing participants to observe how market participants are pricing the likelihood of each potential leader.

Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets like this one are driven by trader consensus and real-money commitment. Sportsbooks may adjust lines more slowly in response to breaking news, whereas this market can reprice instantly as new information surfaces. Comparing the two reveals whether professional oddsmakers or decentralized traders are pricing the outcome more accurately—a useful signal for identifying value in either venue.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the last executed trade price, and new orders move the market as supply and demand shift. Traders can enter limit or market orders, and the spread between bid and ask prices tightens as liquidity increases. Kalshi's pricing model ensures that the market price converges toward true probability as more capital and information flow into the book.

This market resolves around Jul 26, 2026, once the Genesis Scottish Open Round 1 concludes and the leaderboard is finalized. The outcome is determined by identifying which player holds the lead after all first-round play is complete. Resolution is verified against credible public sources, including official PGA Tour reporting and tournament leaderboards. Once the leader is confirmed, the market settles automatically, and traders' positions are closed based on the verified result.

Several catalysts can shift odds before this market closes. Early-round scores and live leaderboard updates directly influence trader expectations about who will lead after Round 1. Weather conditions, course difficulty, and player form on the day all affect real-time performance and market repricing. Injury announcements or late withdrawals can eliminate contenders and reshape the probability distribution. Media commentary and expert analysis may also sway sentiment. As the round progresses and more players complete their first 18 holes, the market will consolidate around the emerging leader, with volatility highest when the outcome remains uncertain.