TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 22, 8:11 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the total games in the Generali Open match between Sebastian Baez and Arthur Rinderknech will exceed 22.5 games, currently showing 100.0% probability on Polymarket, with settlement based on official ATP Tour results. The match is scheduled for July 22, 2026, and the resolution will depend on the final score reported by the ATP Tour on that date.
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Arthur Rinderknech in the Generali Open, originally scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, the current probability reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may incorporate additional factors such as historical performance and public interest, this market’s odds are shaped purely by user bets and liquidity. Traders often see tighter spreads and more nuanced pricing, especially as the event nears. The difference can provide insight into where informed speculators are placing their confidence compared to broader betting markets.
Injuries, weather delays, or surprising form from players can shift this market sharply before Jul 29, 2026. Key moments like pre-match practice results, head-to-head updates, and betting volume spikes often signal turning points. Traders will watch these cues closely as the event nears, with any last-minute news potentially reshaping odds on Polymarket.