TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The markets assess the critical reception of the video game Gears of War: E-Day by tracking its Metacritic score one week after release. Each market corresponds to a different score threshold, indicating varying levels of critical acclaim.
Kalshi
The markets evaluate whether the Metacritic score for Gears of War: E-Day exceeds specific thresholds seven days after the game's release at 10:00 AM ET. If no platform is specified, the first platform listed on the Metacritic page for the game will be used for the score. All markets are independent, each corresponding to a different score benchmark ranging from above 10 to above 95. It is important to note that neither Metacritic nor the game developers have endorsed these markets, and any references to Metacritic are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast that may differ from initial analyst expectations for the Gears of War Metacritic score. While some analysts predicted a score in the 80-85 range, this market’s pricing demonstrates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of perspectives and potentially accounting for unforeseen factors influencing critical reception. It’s common to see discrepancies between early analyst predictions and the evolving probabilities expressed within this market, as new information and sentiment emerge leading up to and following the game’s release. This dynamic interplay offers a unique insight beyond traditional forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Metacritic score ranges for Gears of War. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, creating a dynamic representation of collective belief. Higher demand for a specific score range will drive its price up, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a probabilistic forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome determined by the official Metacritic score assigned to Gears of War: E-Day. The final score will be verified against credible public reporting from Metacritic itself. The contract corresponding to the Metacritic score range that encompasses the final published score will be considered the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for that range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other ranges will not. The resolution process aims to provide a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on publicly available data.
Several signals could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Early reviews from prominent gaming publications and influencers will likely cause price fluctuations, as will any major news regarding development issues or changes to the game’s content. Unexpected marketing campaigns or controversies surrounding the game could also shift market sentiment. A significant change in player reception following the game's release – indicated by user reviews and social media buzz – could further impact trading activity. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the game's quality and critical reception has the potential to move this market.
