TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 7:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on determining whether the Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers secure a decisive lead in the final quarter of their football game. Each market specifies a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a success.
These markets evaluate the margin of victory for either the Minnesota Vikings or the Green Bay Packers specifically within the fourth quarter of their scheduled game on September 13, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a distinct point differential threshold that must be surpassed by the winning team during that quarter for the market to resolve positively. For markets where the Vikings are specified as the winning team, a resolution to 'Yes' occurs only if the Vikings outscore the Packers by more than the stated threshold (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points). Conversely, markets designating the Packers as the winner resolve to 'Yes' when the Packers achieve a fourth-quarter victory by exceeding their respective thresholds (also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). Crucially, only points scored during regulation time of the fourth quarter are considered; any scoring that occurs in overtime does not factor into these resolutions. The structure allows participants to assess varying levels of dominance in the final quarter, with higher thresholds representing more substantial victories.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information and insights that sportsbooks may not immediately consider. However, both aim to accurately predict the outcome, and comparing them can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The current price indicates what traders believe is a fair price for taking either the 'buy' or 'sell' side of the spread.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Packers-Vikings game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, and will determine which contracts pay out to traders. The market’s outcome is determined by the actual point spread difference at the conclusion of the 4th quarter, regardless of the final game score.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Packers or the Vikings would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, as well as public betting patterns on sportsbooks, could all contribute to shifts in the market price. Overall game performance during the first three quarters may also affect trading activity.