TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Gangwon and Jeju SK, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The resolution depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The match is governed by standard soccer rules, with the result determined after the regular 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets resolving based on the goal differential by which either Gangwon or Jeju SK wins the match. A 'Yes' outcome for the Gangwon markets occurs if Gangwon wins by more than 2.5 goals (Rule 1) or more than 1.5 goals (Rule 2). Conversely, a 'Yes' outcome for the Jeju SK markets occurs if Jeju SK wins by more than 1.5 goals (Rule 3) or more than 2.5 goals (Rule 4). All markets resolve solely based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootout results. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks and branding.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the prediction market odds will adjust accordingly. This dynamic can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each possible result. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that adapts to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Gangwon vs Jeju SK match will be verified against official match results. The market will then settle based on whether Gangwon wins by more than 1.5 goals, or another outcome occurs. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process, reflecting the actual result of the soccer match. Traders will receive payouts based on their positions and the final outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Gangwon or Jeju SK would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price changes in this market. Monitoring these signals can help traders make more informed decisions.