TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Gambia will win its professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game against Somalia. Currently, Kalshi gives Gambia a 94.0% probability of winning. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game as determined by the official result of the Gambia vs Somalia professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Sep 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the match on September 25, 2026, as that will begin the window for determining the outcome of this market.
The event resolves based on the result of the Gambia vs Somalia AFCON Qualifiers soccer match scheduled for September 25, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Gambia scores more goals than Somalia within this timeframe, the "Gambia" market resolves to Yes. If Somalia scores more goals, the "Somalia" market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of goals, the "Tie" market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources of participants. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a more accurate probability assessment, especially as more information becomes available. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before the event, as prediction markets react quickly to news and analysis that may not be fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring; higher prices indicate a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own analysis, news, and expectations, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood. The current price movements reflect the collective intelligence of those participating in the market, offering a unique perspective on the Gambia vs Somalia match.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gambia vs Somalia match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning contract and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the event’s progress and potential impact on the market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player availability would likely impact the odds. Furthermore, pre-match analysis from sports analysts, weather forecasts affecting playing conditions, and even significant shifts in public sentiment could all influence trading activity. Unexpected geopolitical events or major news stories could also indirectly affect the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations in this market.