TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 8:01 AM EST
Kalshi
Another professional soccer match features Gamba and Tokyo, where the result hinges on the winning team's margin of victory. Specific goal differences determine the resolution for each potential outcome.
All markets resolve based on the goal differential at the end of regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time), excluding extra time and penalty kicks, in the Japan J1 League match between Gamba and Tokyo scheduled for September 12, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Gamba wins by more than 2.5 goals, Gamba wins by more than 1.5 goals, Tokyo wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Tokyo wins by more than 2.5 goals. No affiliation or endorsement exists between Kalshi and the governing league; all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis and information. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can take a position in this market, driving the price to reflect their collective view. This can sometimes lead to prediction market prices being more accurate than traditional odds, though discrepancies can and do occur.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, and traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and trading accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Gamba vs Tokyo match, specifically the final spread. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the price of the contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 12, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or shifts in team form could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or other external factors that might affect the match could also cause price movements. Furthermore, large trades by individual participants or groups could temporarily shift the price, although the market typically self-corrects as more information becomes available. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s forecast.