This event group covers a J1 League soccer match between Gamba Ōsaka and V-Varen Nagasaki scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets span moneyline outcomes (Kalshi), point spreads, and over/under goal totals (Polymarket), all resolving based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket apply identical resolution windows (90 minutes plus stoppage time), identical primary source (jleague.jp), identical postponement/cancellation protocols, and identical fallback to consensus reporting within 2 hours.
Primary resolution logic:
Official final score published on jleague.jp (J1 League official statistics); consensus of credible reporting if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
Resolution scope: 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; no extra time or penalties count.
Kalshi moneyline markets (Yes outcomes): Gamba win, Tie, or V-Varen win each resolve Yes if that outcome occurs.
Polymarket spread markets: Gamba (-1.5) resolves Yes if Gamba wins by 2+ goals; Gamba (-2.5) resolves Yes if Gamba wins by 3+ goals; V-Varen (-1.5) resolves Yes if V-Varen wins by 2+ goals; V-Varen (-2.5) resolves Yes if V-Varen wins by 3+ goals.
Polymarket over/under markets: O/U 1.5 resolves Over if combined goals >= 2; O/U 2.5 resolves Over if combined goals >= 3; O/U 3.5 resolves Over if combined goals >= 4; O/U 4.5 resolves Over if combined goals >= 5.
Both Teams to Score: Resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal; No if either team scores zero.
Postponement: Markets remain open until game completion.
Cancellation with no makeup: All markets resolve 50-50.
Incomplete match: Resolution uses official final score at point of incompletion.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Game Postponement: Markets remain open and do not resolve until the match is completed on a rescheduled date.
Game Cancellation (No Makeup): All markets in the group resolve 50-50 (split evenly between Yes and No, or between competing outcomes).
Incomplete Match: If the game starts but does not complete (e.g., abandoned), resolution uses the official final score published by jleague.jp at that point, covering only the play that occurred.
Official Statistics Delay: If jleague.jp does not publish official final statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, resolution may use consensus of credible reporting sources.
Extra Time or Penalties: Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count; only the 90 minutes plus stoppage time of regular play determine all market outcomes.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the match concludes (90 minutes plus stoppage time). Official statistics from jleague.jp are the primary source; if unavailable within 2 hours, credible reporting consensus is used. Markets remain open if the game is postponed and resolve only after the rescheduled match is completed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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