TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 6.5M
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Above 6.5M - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 12, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track whether a specific artist achieves various levels of global daily viewership on YouTube within a defined week. Each outcome corresponds to a different threshold of daily views, allowing participants to speculate on the magnitude of the artist's audience engagement during that period.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether the artist 'Future' attains a specified number of global daily views on YouTube at any point between September 7, 2026, and September 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. View counts are evaluated using data displayed from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessed via YouTube Charts by selecting 'Global' as the location. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the market operator. The resolution hinges solely on the occurrence of the specified view count threshold within the stated timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a unique perspective, potentially identifying factors that traditional analysts may overlook. While analysts might rely on historical data and established models, this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement, offering valuable insights into the potential range of outcomes for the highest daily view count during the specified period.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different daily view counts. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the confidence level associated with each potential outcome, allowing participants to gauge the overall sentiment and make informed trading decisions.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count between September 7, 2026, and September 13, 2026, will be determined by publicly available data, and the contract corresponding to that daily view count will pay out. The resolution process focuses on objective, verifiable data to ensure a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding content releases, platform updates, or shifts in user behavior could all influence the perceived likelihood of different daily view counts. Unexpected viral trends or news events could also drive substantial changes in trading activity. Furthermore, any indicators suggesting a surge or decline in overall platform usage would be closely watched by traders, potentially leading to shifts in the odds for this market as we approach the resolution date.
