TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 6M
- Kalshi
Above 6M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 18, 12:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a specific artist achieves certain thresholds of global daily views on YouTube within a defined week. The outcome depends on whether the artist's content attracts viewership surpassing predetermined levels during that period. The thresholds represent increasing levels of audience engagement, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of success.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for global daily YouTube views achieved by an artist during the week of September 14–20, 2026. Each threshold—ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views—constitutes a separate market. For any market to resolve as "Yes," the artist must surpass the respective threshold at least once during the specified period. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data via YouTube Charts with "Global" selected as the location. These markets are strictly for informational purposes and do not imply endorsement by YouTube; references to YouTube are purely descriptive and indicate no formal affiliation between the platform and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
It's often interesting to compare the collective prediction made by this market to those of political analysts or polling data. Currently, there isn't a direct comparison available as there aren't widely publicized forecasts specifically for this type of event. However, the odds reflected in this market represent the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single analyst’s opinion. If analysts were to predict a specific range for the peak daily view count, it would be insightful to see how closely their predictions align with the probabilities indicated by this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the corresponding outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, giving traders insight into the supply and demand for each potential outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a fair and efficient market for predicting the peak daily view count.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count recorded between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026, as reported by the official source for tracking these metrics. The specific threshold for determining the winning outcome will be based on the contract definitions available on Kalshi. Traders will be able to see the final result and receive payouts based on their positions in the market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding content releases or platform updates on PredictionHero itself would be a key driver. Unexpected viral trends or news events that drive traffic to the platform could also cause substantial shifts in the odds. Furthermore, any changes in user engagement metrics or marketing campaigns leading up to the specified dates could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in the PredictionHero view count market.
