TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track whether a specific artist achieves various levels of global daily viewership on YouTube within a defined week. The outcomes depend on whether the artist's content surpasses predetermined view count thresholds on any single day during the period, using data accessible through YouTube's public charts.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether the artist "Future" attains specified global daily view counts on YouTube during the week of October 19–25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. Resolution occurs if, at any point during the week, the artist's global daily views exceed the respective threshold. View counts are sourced from YouTube Charts, with "Global" selected as the location and accessed via a New York IP address to ensure consistency. These markets and related products are explicitly not endorsed by YouTube; references to YouTube charts are used descriptively and do not imply affiliation or endorsement. The structure allows participants to speculate on the likelihood of the artist reaching various levels of viral engagement within the specified timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as reliable, public predictions for daily view counts this far in the future are scarce. However, prediction markets often incorporate a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially reflecting a more nuanced and up-to-date assessment than individual analyst predictions. If analysts were to predict a specific probability for Future reaching a certain view count, it would be interesting to see how that compares to the implied probability reflected in this market on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Future will achieve certain daily view counts. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. Higher demand for a contract increases its price, indicating a greater belief in that outcome, while increased supply lowers the price.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest daily view count recorded for Future between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. The platform will verify this data against publicly available sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual highest daily view count during that timeframe, and payouts will be distributed accordingly.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Future’s content strategy, new feature releases, or partnerships could all drive increased user engagement and, consequently, higher view counts. Unexpected viral trends or media coverage featuring Future could also lead to a surge in viewership. Conversely, negative publicity or technical issues affecting the platform could decrease views. Monitoring Future’s social media presence, news coverage, and user feedback will be crucial for understanding potential market movements leading up to the resolution date.
