TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track whether a specific artist will achieve various levels of global daily viewership on YouTube within a defined week. Each outcome represents a different threshold of daily views that, if surpassed at any point during the period, determines the result. The thresholds increase progressively, offering a range of possible viewership achievements to monitor.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether the artist 'Future' achieves specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube during the period from October 12, 2026, to October 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count benchmark (ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million). If, at any moment during the week, the global daily views exceed the threshold specified for a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes.' View counts are sourced from YouTube Charts, with 'Global' selected as the location and accessed via a New York IP address to ensure consistency. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, where the combined predictions of many individuals prove more accurate than those of individual experts. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s important to consider that analysts may focus on specific factors while the market reflects a broader range of considerations influencing the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count recorded on PredictionHero between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026. The data will be sourced from PredictionHero’s internal analytics and verified to ensure accuracy. The contract corresponding to the highest daily view count during that period will be settled as 'yes', while all other contracts will settle as 'no'.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding new features or content on PredictionHero, marketing campaigns designed to attract users, or unexpected viral trends could all impact view counts. External events, such as significant news stories or cultural moments, that drive traffic to online platforms could also play a role. Furthermore, changes in user behavior or shifts in the online landscape could influence the market’s pricing as traders adjust their expectations leading up to the resolution date.
