TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation
kalshi

Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation

Volume:
$910,406

Round of 16

 - Kalshi

Round of 16 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 10:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$371,704
N/A
N/A
$159,219
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$143,657
N/A
N/A
$102,626
Settled
No
kalshi

Winning the Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$135,673
N/A
N/A
$115,377
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115,145
N/A
N/A
$84,707
Settled
No
kalshi

Losing the Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$84,695
N/A
N/A
$64,602
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,844
N/A
N/A
$41,727
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,687
N/A
N/A
$7,357
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether any host nation competing in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup will advance to the Round of 16 as the furthest stage reached by a host team. On Kalshi, the Round of 16 outcome is at 46.0%, while the Quarterfinals outcome is at 39.0%. Resolution is determined by the official results of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup as published by FIFA. Watch the group stage matches in June 2026 to see which host nations qualify for the knockout rounds.

Kalshi

This event comprises seven separate markets tracking the furthest tournament stage advanced to by any host nation (Canada, Mexico, or the United States) during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. The stages are: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, losing the Final, and winning the Final. Settlement is based on the highest stage reached by any host nation; if multiple host nations reach the same stage, that stage is the outcome. If a host nation withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified, their furthest stage is determined by the last stage they successfully completed. Notably, if a host nation loses in the Semifinals, their furthest stage is considered the Semifinals regardless of whether they win the third-place match. The markets are mutually exclusive—only one will resolve to Yes, corresponding to the actual furthest stage achieved by a host nation.

Frequently asked questions

The Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this sports prediction market. It displays the current probability of each outcome—such as whether the host nation will advance to the Semifinals or beyond—alongside live order-book depth and trading volume. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect new trades and market sentiment. You can monitor $204,488 in recent 24-hour trading activity and review the full $910,406 accumulated since market inception. This single-venue view helps traders and analysts follow how confidence in each stage outcome evolves as tournament events unfold.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time crowd sentiment and incentivized trading rather than bookmaker risk management. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds to balance liability, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from thousands of traders with direct financial stakes. For the Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation event, Kalshi odds may move faster in response to team news, injuries, or tournament developments than static sportsbook prices. Comparing the two sources can reveal where the crowd sees value or where consensus differs, making prediction markets a useful complement to conventional sports betting reference points.

The Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation market resolves on Jul 19, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual furthest stage reached by the host nation in the tournament. Each outcome contract corresponds to a specific stage—such as the Semifinals, Finals, or earlier elimination rounds—and settles based on how far the host nation advances before being eliminated or winning the tournament. Once the tournament concludes and the host nation's final stage is confirmed, the corresponding contract resolves to 100 and all others to 0. This ensures payouts reflect the true historical outcome.

Several factors can shift odds for Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation before Jul 19, 2026. Key player injuries or roster changes to the host nation squad will likely trigger sharp repricing. Early tournament results—wins or losses in group play—provide concrete evidence of team strength and advance odds significantly. Opponent strength and bracket positioning also matter; a favorable draw increases host-nation odds, while tough matchups reduce them. Media narratives, coaching changes, and pre-tournament friendlies can sway sentiment. As the tournament progresses, each match result narrows uncertainty and moves prices toward either higher or lower probabilities depending on whether the host nation performs better or worse than market expectations.