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399,592

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2,622

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5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Orix Buffaloes
kalshi
polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Orix Buffaloes

Volume:
$13,517

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 2.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 2.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 4:20 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 2.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,928
N/A
N/A
$3,953
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,352
N/A
N/A
$4,241
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Orix Buffaloes

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$656
N/A
N/A
$654
Settled
No
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$495
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and the Orix Buffaloes. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria, with one focusing on the outright winner and the other on run differentials.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket market resolves on the outright winner, while the Kalshi market resolves on specific run differential conditions, creating potential mismatches in payouts.Hero tip: Traders should verify the exact resolution conditions for each platform before placing bets, as a Hawks win may not necessarily trigger a 'Yes' outcome on Kalshi if the run differential does not meet their criteria.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the team that wins the game; ties and cancellations resolve 50-50. Key quote: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if certain run differential conditions are met regardless of which team wins. Key quote: If the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 2.5 runs...then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 23 at 12:00AM ET: If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks". If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if either the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 runs, or the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs in their Japan NPB game scheduled for Aug 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT. Four separate outcomes correspond to different run differential thresholds, each defining a unique resolution condition. The secondary rule clarifies that Kalshi has no official ties to the Governing League, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Hawks vs. Buffaloes matchup market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the contest between these two teams. It displays current probabilities, volume of $13,517, and 24-hour volume of $11,172 across venues, letting you see where the market consensus sits and how sentiment shifts over time.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary because each platform attracts different user bases and has unique liquidity conditions. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one venue might see heavier trading on a specific outcome, pushing its probability higher, while the other could remain more balanced. These dynamics create temporary gaps until trading activity aligns the two markets closer together.

Injuries, pitching changes, weather delays, and recent performance trends can all shift this market as the game approaches. Key moments such as star player updates or sudden swings in team form often trigger rapid adjustments in probability, especially when new information emerges that changes the perceived balance between the two sides.