TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Orix Buffaloes
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Orix Buffaloes?

Volume:
$236,213

Orix Buffaloes

 - Kalshi

Orix Buffaloes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 21, 2026

Closed: Jul 21, 8:04 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104,048
N/A
N/A
$72,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$130,346
N/A
N/A
$79,777
Settled
No
polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Orix Buffaloes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,819
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) matchup between the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and Orix Buffaloes scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the outcome of this game, with resolution tied to the official winner.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical tautology: both possible game outcomes (Hawks win or Buffaloes win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market unresolvable as a meaningful prediction instrument. Polymarket correctly implements a binary winner-take-all structure.Hero tip: Trade only on Polymarket for this matchup. Kalshi's market is fundamentally broken and will resolve Yes in all non-cancellation scenarios, providing no actual price discovery or risk differentiation between the two teams.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome structure: Hawks win resolves to Hawks, Buffaloes win resolves to Buffaloes, cancellation/tie/postponement resolves 50-50. Source: Official NPB information. This is logically sound.
  • Kalshi: Tautological structure: Both Hawks win AND Buffaloes win resolve to Yes. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot differentiate between the two teams' outcomes. The market will resolve Yes unless canceled or tied.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 21 at 5:00AM ET: If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks". If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka Hawks Japan NPB game originally scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, the market resolves to a fair price per established rules. In the event of a tie, the market resolves to 50/50.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market pricing for the Hawks vs. Buffaloes matchup across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time odds on the game outcome as traders update their positions. Both venues host the same core question: which team will win. You can compare how each platform's community is pricing the event, track cumulative trading volume across venues, and watch for shifts in consensus as game day approaches. The cross-platform view helps you spot pricing inefficiencies and understand where the broader prediction market stands on this matchup.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks use different mechanisms to set odds. Sportsbooks employ professional oddsmakers and adjust lines to balance action and manage risk; prediction markets rely on trader consensus, where participants buy and sell shares to reflect their beliefs about the outcome. Prediction market prices often converge toward sportsbook odds as the event nears, since both respond to the same underlying information. However, prediction markets can diverge when retail traders hold strong convictions or when information asymmetries exist. For this matchup, comparing prices across both venues and against major sportsbooks can reveal where sentiment differs most.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and liquidity pools, which can cause temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different market designs or settlement mechanics that influence how traders perceive risk. Regulatory environments, user interface preferences, and the timing of large trades can all push prices apart. Additionally, one venue may attract more informed traders on a particular sport, creating an edge. These differences typically narrow closer to resolution as arbitrageurs exploit the spread, but they can persist throughout the event window.

Key catalysts include injury announcements to star players, lineup changes, recent team performance streaks, and head-to-head historical matchups. Weather conditions on game day can also sway odds, particularly for outdoor or weather-sensitive play. Major news about either team's playoff positioning or momentum shifts in the league standings may prompt traders to reassess. Close to game time, late-breaking roster updates or manager statements can trigger sharp moves. Monitoring sports news, official team announcements, and betting market activity across both prediction venues will help you stay ahead of price shifts.