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400,720

Markets across

30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters?

Volume:
$198,478

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

 - Polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 10:07 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

View
100%
32%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks

View
50%
25%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
100¢
N/A
$111,305
N/A
N/A
$67,758
Settled
No
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

View
50%
22%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
100¢
N/A
$82,992
N/A
N/A
$56,399
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a single baseball game between the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan’s NPB league. Currently, the consensus probability of Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters winning is 95.0%. This prediction is an aggregation of data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official results reported at https://npb.jp/. Keep an eye on September 2nd, as this is one potential date for the game according to market listings and will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms differ on the game date and resolution value. Kalshi uses September 2nd and resolves to 'Yes' for either team winning, while Polymarket uses September 8th and resolves to the winning team's name.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket as it provides a clear resolution value (the winning team). The date discrepancy requires careful monitoring of official NPB schedules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning team's name (Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks or Nippon Ham Fighters) if the game is completed on September 8th at 5:00 AM ET. A tie or cancellation results in a 50-50 split.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either team wins the game originally scheduled for September 2nd, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. The platform does not specify a resolution for ties or cancellations.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for September 8 at 5:00AM ET: If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks". If the Nippon Ham Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Nippon Ham Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Japan NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 2, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days away, the market resolves to a fair price. A tied game results in a 50/50 resolution for all markets. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a more informed and diverse set of opinions than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk, while prediction markets aggregate the views of many individuals incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team reputations, this market can quickly adjust to incorporate new information, such as player injuries or performance changes, providing a potentially more dynamic and accurate assessment of the likely winner.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading volume, and market-making activity all contribute. Each platform attracts different participants with varying levels of expertise and access to information. Furthermore, the specific rules and fees associated with each platform can influence trading behavior. For example, Polymarket might have a more active community focused on baseball, while Kalshi may attract a broader range of traders. These nuances can lead to temporary discrepancies in the perceived probabilities of each team winning.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major player injuries to key performers on either the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks or the Nippon Ham Fighters would likely shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in team performance, such as a winning or losing streak, could also drive price movements. News regarding coaching changes or significant trades could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any external factors impacting the championship series, such as weather conditions or controversial officiating decisions, could introduce volatility into this market and alter the perceived chances of each team.