TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters
polymarket
kalshi

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

Volume:
$21,436

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

 - Polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 10:31 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,405
N/A
N/A
$7,299
Settled
No
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,062
N/A
N/A
$2,492
Settled
No
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and the Nippon Ham Fighters scheduled for August 4, 2026. The markets differ in their resolution criteria, with one focusing on the simple winner and the other on run differentials.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket market resolves on the simple winner of the game, while the Kalshi market resolves on specific run differential thresholds.Hero tip: Traders should verify which market they are trading on and understand the specific resolution criteria. A bet on Polymarket may resolve differently than the same bet on Kalshi if the game outcome meets one platform's criteria but not the other's.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the team that wins the game. If postponed, remains open; if canceled or tied, resolves 50-50. Key quote: "If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to 'Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks'."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs. No explicit handling of postponement, cancellation, or tie outcomes provided. Key quote: "If the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 2.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 4 at 5:00AM ET: If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks". If the Nippon Ham Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Nippon Ham Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event examines various run differentials in a single baseball game between the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and Fukuoka Hawks. Four distinct markets resolve based on whether the winning team achieves a victory by exceeding specific run margins: Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 2.5 runs, Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 1.5 runs, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winning by over 1.5 runs, and Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market independently evaluates its respective condition using the final score of the game scheduled for August 4, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT. The secondary disclaimer states that the platform maintains no official connection with the governing league and does not own associated trademarks or logos.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Hawks vs. Fighters matchup market aggregates data across multiple venues, showing the current consensus view and how traders on different platforms price this market. It tracks total volume of $21,436 and 24-hour volume of $21,341, letting you see where interest is concentrated. The view updates in real time, so you can watch how the market shifts as new information emerges about the teams' performance, injuries, or other key factors influencing the game.

Injuries to key players, changes in pitching rotations, weather conditions affecting game play, and recent head-to-head performance are all signals that could shift this market. Any unexpected developments — such as a sudden surge in one team’s form or a critical coaching decision — may also cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their expectations about which side is more likely to prevail.