TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 1, 7:35 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. Each market corresponds to a different run differential threshold, determining whether a team wins by a specific margin or more. The outcomes reflect the competitive balance and potential scoring dynamics of the matchup.
These markets resolve based on the run differential by which either the Fukuoka Hawks or the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the Japan NPB game originally scheduled for August 1, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the specified run margin: over 2.5 runs for either team, or over 1.5 runs specifically for each team. All markets share the same underlying event — the result of this single game — and are independent only in their threshold requirements. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread recorded at the end of the game determines the result, and the market settles based on that official figure.
Injuries to key starters, weather delays, or late lineup changes could all shift expectations for the game’s margin and move this market. Performance trends from early-season matchups, bullpen depth reports, and home-field advantages also influence trader positioning. As Aug 1, 2026 approaches, any last-minute updates from official team announcements or venue conditions may cause rapid adjustments in odds.