TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 7:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between the Fukuoka Hawks and the Orix Buffaloes. It focuses on how many runs the winning team scores beyond the losing team. The outcome depends on the final score difference at the end of the scheduled match.
The market resolves based on the margin of victory in the Fukuoka Hawks vs Orix Buffaloes Japan NPB game scheduled for September 15, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT. If the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 1.5 runs, the second market resolves to Yes. If the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. Finally, if the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets are independent and resolve based solely on the run differential at the conclusion of the game, regardless of any changes to the game's schedule or timing. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of the Orix Buffaloes winning by over 1.5 runs, they can buy 'yes' contracts, driving up the price and potentially signaling a discrepancy. This dynamic can lead to more accurate probabilities as more information becomes available.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Fukuoka Hawks versus Orix Buffaloes game, specifically whether the Orix Buffaloes win by over 1.5 runs. The final score will be the determining factor, and the market will settle accordingly. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Fukuoka Hawks or the Orix Buffaloes would likely cause significant movement. Changes in pitching matchups, weather forecasts, or even public sentiment based on expert analysis could also shift the odds. Unexpected performance in preceding games or shifts in team momentum are also likely to impact trading activity. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential opportunities before Sep 15, 2026.