TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 9:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game. It includes scenarios where either team scores first or if no touchdown is scored at all during the game, including any overtime periods. The outcome depends purely on the game's live progression and scoring events.
The event determines which team, if any, scores the first touchdown in the Fresno St. vs USC college football game scheduled for September 4, 2026. If USC scores the first touchdown—whether offensively, defensively, or via special teams, even in overtime—the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The same applies if Fresno St. scores the first touchdown under any of these conditions. If neither team scores a touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime, the “No team scores a TD” market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final official result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. All touchdowns count toward the outcome, regardless of how they are scored.
Compared to traditional sportsbook odds, prediction market odds for this market often reflect sharper, more granular insights because traders can react instantly to new data. While sportsbooks may lag or round probabilities, this market allows for continuous price adjustments that capture the full range of possible outcomes as analysis or injuries emerge.
On Kalshi, this market uses trader input to set its current odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The probability reflects collective trader expectations about which team will score first, influenced by recent performance trends, injury reports, and strategic analysis. With a volume of $757, the market shows moderate interest so far. Traders can adjust positions as new information emerges before the game begins, impacting the implied chances for each side.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The first team to cross the goal line for a touchdown decides the result, and the platform updates the market status immediately after official confirmation.
Key signals include injury updates to star players, changes in coaching strategy, and weather conditions on game day. Strong pre-game performances in practice or surprising lineup decisions could also shift trader sentiment. As kickoff approaches, any last-minute news affecting either team’s offensive capability will likely cause rapid adjustments in this market. The final odds before Sep 5, 2026 will capture all available information up to that point.