TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 12d:13h:17m
Will FRESH by Lil Baby have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week?
$
Description
These markets ask whether the debut album "FRESH" by Lil Baby will achieve certain sales thresholds within its first week of release. Resolution relies on sales data reported by Hits Daily Double, with a fallback resolution process if that source becomes unavailable.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi presents a series of thresholds where *any* exceeding value resolves the market to 'Yes', while Polymarket offers discrete markets for specific thresholds, relying on Hits Daily Double for resolution.Hero tip: Focus on the probability of Lil Baby's album exceeding each specific threshold when trading on Polymarket. Kalshi's markets are more sensitive to any positive sales performance.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if first week sales (as reported by Hits Daily Double) are greater than or equal to 60k, 80k, 100k, 120k, 140k, or 160k. Includes a no-release clause resolving to 'No' if the album isn't released by December 6, 2026. "Question: Will "FRESH" first week sales be at least 60k?"
- Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if FRESH exceeds *any* of the thresholds from 20k to 400k Album Equivalent Units during the November 6-12, 2026 tracking week. "If FRESH by Lil Baby has above 20K Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
"FRESH" (Lil Baby / Quality Control, Motown) is expected to release November 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the debut week sales for "FRESH", according to Hits Daily Double, are greater than or equal to the specified amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the album has not been released by December 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album's debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Lil Baby's album FRESH achieves specific sales milestones in its first week, from November 6 to November 12, 2026, in the U.S. market. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of album equivalent units, ranging from above 20,000 to above 400,000 units. The resolution is based on data reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse, verify, or participate in the prediction market outcomes. All markets share the same tracking period and data source, with each market resolving to 'Yes' if the reported units exceed its respective threshold, and 'No' otherwise.