TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the streaming performance of a specific song over a defined week. It evaluates whether the song achieves various streaming milestones, reflecting its popularity and reach during that period. The outcomes are determined by independent data reporting.
Kalshi
The event assesses whether the song "Frequency Of Love" by Victoria Monét attains specified streaming thresholds within the U.S. during the tracking week of October 02, 2026, to October 08, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct streaming milestone, ranging from above 50K streams to above 10 million streams. All markets resolve based on data provided by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse, verify, or participate in the prediction market outcomes. The resolution for each market depends solely on whether the reported stream count exceeds the respective threshold, with all markets sharing the same data source and timing for verification.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. If analysts predict a certain streaming range, it’s valuable to see if this market agrees or diverges, indicating potential overconfidence or overlooked factors in either approach. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the “wisdom of the crowd” offers a different outlook on the song’s potential success.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adjust to new information and reflect evolving expectations about the song’s first-week streaming performance.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for the first week of “Frequency Of Love” are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total streams across major streaming platforms. The precise methodology for calculating these streams will be determined by Kalshi and publicly available prior to resolution. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified streaming data.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early pre-save numbers, social media buzz surrounding the song’s release, and initial critical reviews could all influence trader sentiment. A major promotional push by the artist or label, such as a viral TikTok campaign or a high-profile television appearance, could also drive increased interest and higher streaming predictions. Conversely, negative press or a lack of initial traction could lead to a decrease in the market price for higher streaming outcomes.
