TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Francis Bacon's Two Studies for Self-Portrait: Sale price
kalshi

Francis Bacon's Two Studies for Self-Portrait: Sale price

Volume:
$12,528

Above $10M

 - Kalshi

Above $10M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 24, 9:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $10M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$776
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $14M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,812
N/A
N/A
$1,990
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $16M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,809
N/A
N/A
$1,423
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $12M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,678
N/A
N/A
$748
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $18M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,452
N/A
N/A
$1,522
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Francis Bacon's Two Studies for Self-Portrait will sell for more than $10 million at Sotheby's upcoming auction. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 90.0%. Resolution will be determined by the actual hammer price achieved during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, at 1:00 PM EDT, as reported by Sotheby's. The critical moment arrives when the auctioneer opens bidding on this lot during the June 24 live auction session.

Kalshi

The market contains multiple outcomes based on progressive price thresholds for the lot sold price of "Two Studies for Self-Portrait" by Francis Bacon at the Sotheby's live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the final hammer price exceeds its specified threshold ($10M, $12M, $14M, $16M, or $18M). Resolution is verified from the amount displayed under "Lot Sold" on the Sotheby's website. If the price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of sale.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity on Kalshi for the Francis Bacon Two Studies for Self-Portrait auction outcome. It displays the current probability that the lot will sell above $14,000,000 at Sotheby's live auction on June 24, 2026. The interface shows $12,528 in total group volume and $1,298 in 24-hour trading activity, reflecting trader conviction around the final hammer price for this significant contemporary artwork.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader sentiment and are often more dynamic than traditional analyst estimates. While auction house pre-sale estimates and art market analysts provide static valuations, prediction markets aggregate continuous information from active participants trading on the outcome. The current market probability incorporates recent bidder interest, comparable sales data, and market conditions closer to the June 24, 2026 auction date, offering a live alternative to fixed expert forecasts.

Key catalysts include recent comparable sales of major Bacon works, shifts in high-net-worth collector demand, and broader contemporary art market trends. Sotheby's pre-sale estimates, condition reports, and any changes to the provenance narrative can influence trader positioning. Macroeconomic factors affecting luxury spending, currency fluctuations, and competing major auctions in the same period may also impact bidder appetite. Media coverage and auction house marketing campaigns closer to June 24, 2026, typically drive final momentum shifts.