TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 7:38 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming US Open ATP singles match between Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen, scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final set score of the Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen match. This match is played in a best-of-5-sets format. The possible outcomes are 3-0, 3-1, “Not Completed”, and 3-2 in either direction. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date at 11:59 PM ET without completion, this market will resolve to 'Not Completed'. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to 'Not Completed' regardless of the set score at the time. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 'Not Completed'. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the upcoming US Open ATP singles match between Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen, scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final set score of the Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen match. This match is played in a best-of-5-sets format. The possible outcomes are 3-0, 3-1, “Not Completed”, and 3-2 in either direction. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date at 11:59 PM ET without completion, this market will resolve to 'Not Completed'. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to 'Not Completed' regardless of the set score at the time. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 'Not Completed'. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on internal models and aim to profit from imbalances in betting, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially as an event approaches, as more information becomes available and is incorporated into the prices. However, sportsbook odds can provide a useful benchmark for comparison.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will rise. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's potential results, driven entirely by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, official score of the Tiafoe vs. Michelsen match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact score will be the determining factor, and the market will settle to 100% in favor of the outcome that matches the official result. Traders should ensure they understand the event details and potential for delays before participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match analyses from tennis experts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, might also play a role. As the match draws closer, real-time updates during the game, such as set scores and key moments, will likely cause significant fluctuations in the market prices.