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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
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2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 6:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Sweden will score more than 2.5 goals during regulation time in the France vs Sweden FIFA World Cup match. The leading outcome, Sweden exceeding 2.5 goals, currently stands at 99.0% probability according to Kalshi's pricing. Resolution is determined by the official goal count recorded during the 90 minutes of play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Watch the match on June 30, 2026, as the final whistle will trigger settlement based on Sweden's actual goal total in regulation.
All markets resolve based on the final goal tally for each team during regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time) of the France vs Sweden FIFA World Cup match originally scheduled for June 30, 2026. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. Each market establishes a specific goal threshold—ranging from 0.5 to 5.5 goals for France and 0.5 to 2.5 goals for Sweden—and resolves to Yes if the respective team records more goals than that threshold. For example, a France over 1.5 goals market resolves Yes only if France scores 2 or more goals. Own goals are credited to the team officially awarded the goal by match officials. Resolution is determined solely by the official final score recorded at the end of regulation time, regardless of any subsequent match developments.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders risking real capital on their beliefs about the actual outcome. Prediction markets frequently incorporate breaking news, injury reports, and late-developing information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines, making them a useful signal for comparing against published betting odds and identifying where consensus may be shifting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective assessment of all active traders at any given moment. As new information surfaces or trading volume shifts, prices adjust in real time. This continuous price discovery process ensures that the odds you see represent the most up-to-date market consensus on the team total outcome.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once the France vs Sweden match concludes and the final team totals are verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the combined regulation-time score for each team, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout. Once the result is confirmed and publicly reported, the market will settle automatically, paying out shares on the correct outcome and expiring shares on all others.
Key catalysts that could shift odds include team roster announcements, injury updates to star players, recent form and head-to-head records, and tactical adjustments revealed in pre-match press conferences. Weather conditions on match day, home-field advantage factors, and historical scoring patterns between these teams also influence trader positioning. As the kickoff approaches, late-breaking news—such as lineup surprises or unexpected absences—often triggers sharp repricing. Monitor official team communications and credible sports media for developments that could reshape expectations around the final team total.