TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 14, 4:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Spain will score more than 1.5 goals during regulation time of the France vs Spain FIFA World Cup match. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Spain scoring over 1.5 goals—stands at 99.0%. Resolution is determined by the official goal count recorded during the 90 minutes plus stoppage time of the match on July 14, 2026, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout. Watch for team lineups and injury reports released in the days leading up to the July 14, 2026 kickoff, as these will signal each squad's attacking capacity.
All markets evaluate team performance during regulation time of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for July 14, 2026. Regulation time is defined as 90 minutes plus stoppage time and explicitly excludes extra time and penalties. Each market resolves based on whether the specified team records goals exceeding the stated threshold. France has four markets tracking whether the team scores above 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 goals respectively. Spain has four corresponding markets with identical threshold structures. Own goals count toward the team awarded the goal by official match records. Resolution is determined solely by the final goal count recorded at the conclusion of the 90-minute regulation period plus any added stoppage time.
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market reflects what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas sportsbooks incorporate margin and hedging costs. Over time, prediction market prices often converge toward actual outcomes because traders profit by identifying mispricings, creating a natural efficiency mechanism absent in fixed-odds betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different team total outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the continuous negotiation between buyers and sellers, with each contract's value ranging from $0 to $1 based on perceived probability. As traders submit orders and execute trades, the market price adjusts in real time, ensuring that the most recent transactions represent the current consensus view of the likely team total during regulation time.
This market resolves around Jul 14, 2026, once the France vs Spain match concludes and the final regulation-time team totals are verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the combined official score of both teams during the standard 90-minute period, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Resolution occurs after the event is confirmed through established sports reporting channels, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders.
Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—typically drives significant price shifts in this market. Tactical announcements, recent form, head-to-head history, and pre-match analysis from credible analysts can all influence trader expectations around scoring output. Weather conditions on match day, venue factors, and late-breaking developments hours before kickoff may also trigger volatility. As the match approaches, real-time events during play will cause rapid repricing, especially if early goals or defensive setups suggest a higher or lower-scoring contest than anticipated.